← Alpha board
gulf · Crystal River, Citrus County, FL
Crystal River stale-waterfront-land basket (Kings Bay / estuary parcels under $550k)
discoveredevidence: high
screen
model pb-score-v1
Systematically bid stale (150+ DOM) waterfront parcels 15-25% below ask; restoration and 2029 Parkway are slow-burn catalysts the retail market is not pricing while DOM stretches.
Asking price
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Suggested offer
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Do-not-exceed
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Renovation range
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Visible scores — no black box
Asset — quality & scarcity82
Alpha — why the market is wrong73
Operating — durable use / income75
Risk — threats to capital (low is good)52
RealtyFund fit67
Composite71
Thesis
Named catalyst
Average listing age 207 days across 71 waterfront listings with cascading July 2026 price cuts, while Kings Bay Restoration phases keep improving the very water these parcels front
Revenue strategy
Land bank, staged exit
Primary risks
- some parcels stale for structural reasons (wetlands, no dock path)
- insurance-driven buyer pool shrinkage may persist
- land carries with no yield
Evidence room
| Source | Kind | Retrieved | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| LandSearch | market | 2026-08-01 | open → |
| Save Crystal River | gov | 2026-08-01 | open → |
Next action
Qualified opportunities advance to RealtyFund diligence. Rehab routes to HomeManager / Handyman / ServiceEscrow; stabilized operations route to PropertyManagement.