← Alpha board
gulf access canal · Cape Coral, Lee County, FL
SW Cape Coral South Spreader canal homes (post-Chiquita Lock removal corridor), $500k-$1.1M
discoveredevidence: high
screen
model pb-score-v1
Homes priced for years as 'behind the lock' now have true unrestricted gulf access; current distress lets a buyer capture the upgrade before repricing.
Asking price
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Suggested offer
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Do-not-exceed
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Renovation range
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Visible scores — no black box
Asset — quality & scarcity78
Alpha — why the market is wrong75
Operating — durable use / income75
Risk — threats to capital (low is good)52
RealtyFund fit67
Composite70
Thesis
Named catalyst
Chiquita Lock removed June 2025 (unrestricted Gulf access) colliding with deep buyer's market: 69% of Cape listings with cuts, gulf-access segment 128 avg DOM, $24k avg relist concessions
Revenue strategy
Buy stale listings, renovate, STR/resale
Primary risks
- environmental litigation over lock removal could resurface
- flood insurance repricing on older canal stock
- broad Cape oversupply drags comps
Evidence room
| Source | Kind | Retrieved | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fish Tale Boats | news | 2026-08-01 | open → |
| GreaterFtMyers gulf-access segment stats | market | 2026-08-01 | open → |
| Houzeo Cape Coral market data | market | 2026-08-01 | open → |
Next action
Qualified opportunities advance to RealtyFund diligence. Rehab routes to HomeManager / Handyman / ServiceEscrow; stabilized operations route to PropertyManagement.